#198: Co-Determination: Supply Mechanics with RTFKT

📦 Supply is not what it seems

Lebron 🤝 RTFKT

Last week, the sneaker and basketball worlds got a sneak peek of what web3 could look like for the mainstream market.

Lebron James walked out with his Game 1 playoffs fit against the Warriors rocking a pair of RTFKT x Nike Air Force 1 Genesis sneakers.

What makes this notable?

• It’s LEBRON, one of the biggest figures in modern day sports 🤴🏾

• The sneaker legitimately looks nice and caught the attention of sneakerheads all around the world. For those familiar with the sneaker game, it’s rare for the Nike swoosh to be replaced with something else altogether.

• Worlds are merging with this photo. Web3 fans, sneakerheads, and basketball fans are finding common ground with this photo. I intentionally took this tweet from Sole Retriever, a brand focused on sneaker-related content and news. They likely don’t care much about web3. But fire sneakers from a web3 brand worn by Lebron James?

On top of that, the RTFKT team got to meet King James himself, and onboard him to the RTFKT universe 🤯

The cherry on top? Lebron wore the sneakers because he wanted to.

This is the unlock that consumer web3 companies have pivoted towards. Create great products first, then let the tech shine.

As the excitement swirled around Lebron’s RTFKT cameo, another interesting development was under way.

RTFKT’s Forging Period

The RTFKT digital-to-physical redemption process is an interesting one:

• Eligible holders purchase and mint the digital product (NFT) during specific windows. RTFKT calls these ‘Pre-Forge’ NFTs.

• The forging window opens up. During this time, Pre-Forge NFT holders forge these NFTs (free + gas).

• The NFT still exists, but in a ‘Forged’ state, and the physical products are shipped at a later date.

Because of this multi-stage process, some interesting dynamics have appeared, specifically around how digital and physical supply is determined.

Digital Supply

There are two layers for how the digital supply is determined. The first layer is during the pre-forge minting window which opened up back in August 2022.

Depending on your Clone’s DNA trait, you could mint up to 2 of each corresponding DNA item. In the screenshot example below, this Clone had both Human and Murakami DNA traits, so they were eligible to purchase and mint NFTs for those respective collections.

All Clones were also eligible to mint up to 1 of each Genesis item.

If we focus on the Air Force 1’s and the Human DNA, we can see that there are 9,754 Human Clones.

Source

With 2 per Clone holder, the theoretical maximum supply would be 19,508 Human AF 1 pairs that could be minted.

What was the actual number of Human AF1’s that were minted? 1,986, approximately 10% of the maximum theoretical supply.

The RTFKT x AF1 Lookbook provides an overview of each of the sneakers and their respective supply.

What does the Pre-Forge rate look like by DNA trait?

Genesis supply is estimated based on holder count week of 8/30/22

There are some interesting takeaways:

• Preferences determined true Pre-Forge rarity. For example Robot had 3.4x max hypothetical supply vs. Angel, but had less NFTs minted in absolute terms, making it rarer in terms of total Pre-Forged supply.

• The lower the max hypothetical supply, the higher Pre-Forge %

• There was one exception to this: Murakami Drip. This is because Murakami is a world-renowned artist with highly coveted work.

• Alien had a 100% Pre-Forge rate, which is impressive.

The Pre-Forge event shed interesting insights around preference and how hypothetical supply doesn’t necessarily dictate actual supply.

Physical Supply

Fast forward several months later, the forging window for the AF1s began April 24th and will be ending tomorrow. With 1 day left, what do the Forged rates look like?

Takeaways from this view:

• Pre-Forge to Forge rates are pretty consistent. The Forge rate is directionally higher for the rarer pairs.

• The aggregate forge rates further emphasize aesthetic preferences and supply dynamics.

• There’s still one day left, so these numbers will increase. However, I don’t expect significant changes.

For those less familiar with the sneaker world, the supply for these physical sneakers is quite limited. As a comparison, the highly coveted Air Jordan 1 Dior sneakers had a supply of 13,000 pairs and are selling for $6-7,000 a pair.

RTFKT doesn’t have the global recognition of Dior, but that could change quickly. Lebron isn’t the only famous athlete rocking early samples either.

German Footballer Mario Götze rocking RTFKT x AF1

Now comes the hard part for forgers like myself: Waiting. The sneakers are estimated to ship in October, so we’ll have to contain our excitement for at least 5 more months.

What happens to the unforged AF1 NFTs?

The Pre-Forge NFTs will not be able to be forged once the window closes. There’s no benefit in leaving these NFTs unforged, especially since RTFKT is building out their NFC tech with the RTFKT WM (World Merging) chip, allowing for physical x digital experiences and capabilities.

This may leave some inactive holders upset when they check Twitter or Discord months from now, but this is what the RTFKT team has committed to with constant reminders across multiple channels.

Co-Determination: The evolution of Co-Creation

The term Co-Creation is starting to become a buzzword in professional circles. It’s not just about fostering an engaged and loyal community. It’s about building and creating with them, aka Co-Creation. And we know that Nike is committed to that with the rollout of the .SWOOSH platform and the Our Force 1 Drop.

With the RTFKT x AF1 forging event, I believe a new variation of Co-Creation is happening: Co-Determination.

As always, when I come up with a witty new term, I do a Google search to see if it already exists.

Alas, the term exists 😔

However, one of Google’s snippets caught my eye.

RTFKT isn’t a DAO, but the Forging process incorporates elements of a shared governance model:

• RTFKT determines the guidelines around max supply and the designs of what will be forged

• Holders vote with their wallets by minting and forging the NFTs, determining true supply

• The final Pre-Forged and Forged supply provides a feedback loop around preference

This Co-Determination process provides more angles to think about what ‘supply’ actually is and how it can be determined.

As we all know, Web3 provides more flexibility around ownership and participation. However, we’ve only scraped the surface in terms of what is possible on those fronts. We’ll be seeing more innovative mechanics emerge as more builders and creators embrace and pull these levers.

Shoutout to Matty from Exhale Studios for inspiring this piece. We talked about the concept of holders determining supply at Consensus, and that concept evolved in this. 🤝

See you Thursday!