[Thoughts #141] 3 Predictions and Themes post-FTX
🔮 I know the future! JK I don't know 💩
I said I wouldn’t provide FTX-related updates and I have held to that promise so far. So far so good.
Jk, it’s not that hard, but there are some ridiculous updates to that saga…
Instead, I’m going to focus to a few predictions and themes post-FTX.
1. Those that were involved in Web3 pre-FTX will stay involved in Web3 post-FTX.
I believe most of the ‘tourists’ in the space already left earlier this year from the Luna and Celsius collapses and crypto prices cratering.
Using the price of Bitcoin as a reference, we can see the events of May and June caused a much larger absolute and % impact than the recent events.
We see similarities when applying the same view to Ethereum.
This doesn’t nullify the reality that a lot of people were impacted by the fraud that has been committed along with the financial, emotional, and mental pain being felt by businesses and consumers alike. However, I believe that if you were building in Web3 last month, you’re probably still building in Web3 today, tomorrow, and hopefully beyond.
With these recent events, emotions are running high. Who are the good actors in the space? Who can you trust? Who actually is walking the talk with the ideals they’re preaching?
As the popular saying goes, ‘This too shall pass.’ That said, we shouldn’t forget about these events.
Let’s say some people leave, what would they do instead? Would they return to Web2 tech? They aren’t exactly hiring…everyone’s hurting. Here’s a sample of companies announced layoffs in the past week:
Web3 is more fun anyway 🤪
2. Non-crypto Web3 use cases will lead consumer adoption
Before providing more color for this prediction, I want to clarify some nuances:
I am focusing on Web3 use cases, which is inclusive of blockchain technology, crypto, NFTs, DAOs, etc.
This prediction is through a North American lens. In developing countries, crypto may still be the primary means of Web3 adoption.
Financial Web3 use cases, specifically crypto, are still massively important.
It goes without saying that the recent events are a major setback for crypto and the full extent of the damage is still unclear. The uphill battle for adoption, regulation, and sentiment became much steeper.
On the other hand, other use cases for Web3 adoption continue to flourish and push the space forward from angles. Chris Cantino expresses this sentiment well:
The beauty of Web3 is that the foundational technology of blockchain has a multitude of applications. The largest global brands in the world will continue to push forward with adopting Web3 for non-financial use cases.
The list goes on.
There maybe positive financial outcomes from these use cases (eg: selling your rare NFT for a life-changing sum of money), but that’s not the primary goal for these companies adopting Web3 tech.
Are these truly decentralized platforms or solutions? Absolutely not.
Is that ok though? I think so.
The above initiatives are centralized platforms built on decentralized foundations. I’ll take that. It’s unrealistic to expect hundreds of millions, not to mention billions of people to live their lives in a purely decentralized manner.
My hope and expectation is that the above brands do their part to onboard millions of users and educate them about basic Web3 concepts. A portion of these users will go down the rabbithole to learn more about decentralized solutions, self-custody, and the benefits of crypto and other related topics.
When that happens, we’ll be waiting to educate, inform, and share more about the benefits and ethos of decentralization.
With this major setback, we need to adjust our expectations, approaches towards mass adoption, and understand the tradeoffs to do so. The landscape has shifted, and as a result our approach should as well.
3. Web3 consolidation is coming
This is obvious, but I want to dig a layer deeper on the consolidation. There are two types for the purposes of this prediction:
Constrictive and Expansive
WTF, TPan is making up terms.
Yes I am lol, and I think it paints a more nuanced picture. Hear me out!
Constrictive consolidation looks like this:
Certain players in Web3 will go bankrupt or be acquired for pennies on the dollar as secondary and tertiary order effects are felt.
On the other hand, there will be expansive consolidation as well.
Expansive consolidation consists of acquisitions or mergers that are a net positive for both sides and create long-term benefits to the broader Web3 space.
A good example of this is a headline that was overshadowed by other headlines yesterday.
With this acquisition, the Yugaverse has expanded further
WENEW and the team are quiet juggernauts in content creation and storytelling. I believe this acquisition is not only beneficial to Yuga but the broader Web3 space, which complements my second prediction.
WENEW’s former CEO, Michael Figge, will be joining as Yuga’s Chief Content Officer, and Beeple will join as an advisor.
On top of that, the official press release highlights Yuga’s full-time staff is now over 100.
In one of the scenes of Avengers Infinity War, Dr. Strange examines 14,000,605 possible futures, with only one being favorable for the good guys.
I believe Web3 has more than one possible future that is favorable. That number has been reduced due to recent events, but we double down and focus on the ones that remain.
See you tomorrow!